01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-07-0281 |
| Title of Abstract | Data-driven Techniques To Achieve Accurate, Timely and Precise Tsunami Warnings |
| Authors | Srinivasa Kumar Tummala*, Ken Gledhill, Bill Fry, Michael Angove, Christopher Moore |
| Organisation | UNESCO-IOC |
| Address | 1 Ord Street WEST PERTH, Western Australia, Australia Pincode: 6005 E-mail: sk.tummala@unesco.org |
| Country | Australia |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | The Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme (UNODTP) aims to achieve a generational improvement in the timeliness and accuracy of tsunami warnings globally, similar to the scale of advances following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. This ambitious goal requires increased emphasis on direct ocean wavefield measurements that can transform the current tsunami warning and forecasting paradigm with strong reliance on proxy relationships. A significant increase in observational data, and an updated forecasting strategy is required. We argue that by re-imagining the global sensor grid to focus on the required observational density that is achievable with new and existing observational technologies, source-agnostic forecasting can transform the current strategies strongly relying on the earthquake source as a proxy for the tsunami source. We build upon the concept of the tsunami threat lifecycle phases identified by the UNODTP to define actionable advances in the warning system continuously over the course of an event: (1) Initial Indicators; (2) Confirmation, (3) Forecasting; (4) Verification, and (5) Cancellation. An overarching goal is to provide as much certainty of the likely impacts at all phases of the tsunami threat lifecycle as possible, including information on the duration of impacts. This new framework is patterned after similar frameworks that have proven successful for weather forecasting. This approach allows tsunami forecasts to be continually updated throughout the entire tsunami threat lifecycle. Forecasts can be continually updated and provide high-confidence information to emergency managers as tsunami threats unfold, even for tsunamis not caused by earthquakes. While in the time scale of the Ocean Decade, improved earthquake characterisation techniques and deep ocean tsunameters will continue to be the primary tools, we will look to other technologies and techniques, where and when available, to augment, expand or in some cases substitute for these traditional sensing platforms and strategies. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | Tsunami Observations, Source Agnostic Tsunami Detection, Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme, Tsunami Threat Lifecycle |
| For Awards | no |