01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-05-0275 |
| Title of Abstract | Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Variability and Model Validation in the Northern Indian Ocean: Insights from Observations and Recent Extreme Events |
| Authors | PRASHANT GOUTAM GOVANDE* |
| Organisation | INDIAN NATIONAL CENTRE FOR OCEAN INFORMATION SERVICES (INCOIS) |
| Address | AT KAMTHA KHURD Nanded, MAHARASHTRA, India Pincode: 431605 E-mail: pg.govande-p@incois.gov.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | Accurate estimation of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is crucial for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). This study validates TCHP estimates from three ocean models⿿the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)⿿using in-situ observations from OMNI buoys and Argo floats. The integration of these datasets provides a comprehensive validation framework, addressing the limitations of relying solely on satellite-derived SST. Seasonal comparison improves understanding of each model⿿s strengths using both OMNI buoy and Argo observations. In the first evaluation phase (January 2023 ⿿ May 2024) comparison of ROMS and GODAS TCHP estimates, while the second phase (June ⿿ December 2024) compares ROMS and HYCOM with available observations. Results show that GODAS generally captures seasonal variability and absolute TCHP values more accurately, especially in the Arabian Sea, while ROMS demonstrates some skill in resolving fine-scale variability during transitional periods. HYCOM, assessed in the latter phase, exhibited improved consistency and closer alignment with in-situ observations, owing to its hybrid vertical coordinate system and assimilation capabilities. In addition to this, case studies of two cyclones⿿Biparjoy (June 2023, Arabian Sea) and Michaung (December 2023, Bay of Bengal)⿿were analyzed to assess TCHP variability during extreme events. Statistical evaluation (RMSE, bias, correlation) revealed basin-specific behavior, with GODAS accurately representing cyclone-induced TCHP variations. Both cyclones showed a decline in TCHP after passage, consistent with oceanic mixing and upwelling. Challenges remain in reproducing TCHP variations in the highly stratified Bay of Bengal, underscoring the need to integrate in-situ observations for improved estimation and forecasts. As all models exhibit errors across regions and seasons, refinement is essential. This validation and event-based analysis highlights TCHP⿿s operational role in cyclone prediction, monitoring, and risk preparedness in the NIO. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | TCHP, HYCOM, GODAS, ROMS, Argo, OMNI Buoy, Biparjoy, Michaung. |
| For Awards | yes |
| Date Of Birth | 11-05-2000 |
| ECSN Registration Number | IIOE2-ECSN-0163 |