01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-05-0208 |
| Title of Abstract | Impact of sea level rise on storm surges due to futuristic cyclone tracks along North coast of Bay of Bengal |
| Authors | Prasanta Roy*, Ritama Das, Sumit Mondal, Tushar Kanti Saha, Anup Kumar Mandal, Neeru Jaiswal, Tarun Kumar De |
| Organisation | Department of Marine Sc., University of Calcutta, B.C. Rd. Kol-19 |
| Address | University of Calcutta KOLKATA, West Bengal, India Pincode: 700019 E-mail: rprasanta2000@gmail.com |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | This study examines the impact of future shoreline changes on storm surges in the northern Bay of Bengal. The study utilizes the cyclone tracks of super cyclone Amphan and cyclones Bulbul, Fani and Yaas and synthetic tracks are generated for the next 50 years to project a future scenario of the could be affected areas due to these extreme events. Due to global warming from high industrial carbon emissions, sea levels are rising, leading to continuous changes in the shape and position of coastlines, which is of great concern. Based on data from ⿿CMIP6⿿ (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) up to 2050, the average sea level rise in our study region is found to be approximately 0.35 cm per year. The future bathymetry profile of the study area, required as an input for the surge simulation, has been computed using this data from CMIP6. Storm surges can be modeled using a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model called ⿿ADCIRC⿿ (Advanced Circulation). Simulations of super cyclone Amphan and cyclone Bulbul, using a high-performance computing system with 144 cores, incorporating the future bathymetry with sea level changes, show surge height increases of about 0.4-0.6m and 0.2-0.5m, respectively. TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool) is used to generate the synthetic tracks, which considers the average number of storms per year in the region of interest, with data on wind speed, forward speed, and other factors. Results indicate that global warming increases maximum cyclone wind speeds by about 10 m/s. Additionally, there is a significant change in the number of cyclone tracks compared to historical data for the West Bengal and Odisha regions. The present study will benefit the future planning for the coastal zone management. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | CMIP6, ADCIRC, TCWiSE, Tropical Cyclone |
| For Awards | no |