01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-05-0015 |
| Title of Abstract | Recent Reduction in the Frequency and Intensity of Rapid Intensification of the Tropical Cyclones over the West Coast of the Bay of Bengal during October-December |
| Authors | Anupama Sahoo*, Dr. Girishkumar M.S |
| Organisation | INCOIS, Hyderabad |
| Address | INCOIS, Pragathi nagar, hyderabad Hyderabad, Telangana, India Pincode: 500090 E-mail: a.sahoo-rf@incois.gov.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | The densely populated west coast of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is susceptible to Tropical cyclones (TCs) landfall during the post-monsoon season (October⿿December). Climatologically, post-monsoon TCs over the BoB undergo rapid intensification (RI) when they approach the west coast of the BoB. Analysis of post-monsoon TC data over the BoB during the last three decades (1993-2024) depicts a notable reduction in the frequency and intensity of RI events, such that the proportion of TC undergoing RI decreased from 55% during the first period (1993⿿2003) to 30% in the second period (2004⿿2014) and further to 22% in the third period (2015⿿2024). Multiple RI events occurred in 25% of cases during the first period, but such cases were absent during the recent period. In addition, the maximum increase in wind speed associated with RI often exceeded 50⿿75 kt in the first period, whereas in the recent period, it never exceeded 40 kt. It was found that a reduction in absolute vorticity intensity and a decrease in potential intensity within 300 km over the west coast of the BoB are primarily responsible for the decrease in RI frequency over the BoB during the recent period. Our analysis based on the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) indicates that the reduction in the RI cases in the BoB in the recent period is part of the decadal modulation of GPI over the BoB, which is primarily determined by the combined effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | Tropical Cyclone (TC), Genesis Potential Index (GPI), Rapid Intensification (RI) |
| For Awards | yes |
| Date Of Birth | 08-08-1999 |
| ECSN Registration Number | IIOE2-ECSN-0109 |