01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-04-0338 |
| Title of Abstract | Future Storm Surge Risks under Climate Change: Insights from Historical and Synthetic Cyclone Scenarios along the Indian Coasts |
| Authors | PLN MURTY*, M Mohapatra, Monica Sharma, Amit Bhardwaj |
| Organisation | India Meteorological Department |
| Address | DGM office, IMD New Delhi, DELHI, India Pincode: 110003 E-mail: murty.iitd@gmail.com |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | This study investigates storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east and west coasts of India, regions highly vulnerable to extreme weather events. Using historical cyclone tracks from the past five decades, together with synthetic tracks projected for the next 50 years, a comprehensive assessment of storm surge risk has been carried out. The ADCIRC model is employed to simulate surge heights and inundation under both historical and future cyclone scenarios, explicitly accounting for the influence of climate variability and long-term climate change on cyclone intensity and trajectories. Composite analyses highlight spatial patterns of surge characteristics across diverse coastal settings, thereby identifying hotspot regions of vulnerability. The results indicate a significant shift in coastal risk distribution under future climate scenarios: low-risk zones are drastically reduced, while high-risk zones expand substantially. Moderate-risk zones also increase considerably, underscoring the enhanced exposure of coastal communities and ecosystems. These outcomes emphasize that future storm surge impacts will be more widespread and severe, demanding improved coastal adaptation and mitigation strategies. The novelty of this work lies in its integrated framework, which combines historical cyclone behavior with climate-projected scenarios to understand the evolving nature of storm surges in the Indian Ocean region. The findings are directly relevant to disaster risk reduction, operational surge forecasting, and coastal management, while advancing scientific understanding of the links between circulation changes, climate variability, and extreme coastal events. They provide a scientific basis for preparedness strategies to safeguard ecosystems, infrastructure, and coastal populations against climate-driven hazards. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | Storm surge; Coastal inundation; ADCIRC model; Cyclone climatology; Climate change; Indian coasts; Extreme events; Disaster risk reduction |
| For Awards | yes |
| Date Of Birth | 19-06-1983 |
| ECSN Registration Number | IIOE2-ECSN-0176 |