01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-04-0157 |
| Title of Abstract | The Prediction Skill of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode in DCPP-CMIP6 Decadal Hindcast Models |
| Authors | Biswamoy Paul*, Dr. Feba Francis, Prof. Karumuri Ashok, Dr. Francis P A, Prof. Sreenivas Pentakota |
| Organisation | Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services |
| Address | Pragathi Nagar Hyderabad, Telangana, India Pincode: 500090 E-mail: biswamoy.p@incois.gov.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode events are the most fascinated interannual ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Indian Ocean. The zonal contrast of tropical ocean conditions foists enormous unfavorable impacts on the regional weather and climate. However, the predictability of IOD events is limited to only a season in advance which poses a huge socioeconomic loss in the affected regions. We explore the DCPP-CMIP6 decadal hindcast models for their predictability of IOD events at different years after their initialization. Two CMIP6 models viz., CanESM5 and NorCPM1 (to some extent) have quite significant predictability of IOD events even after eight to ten years of initialization. We anatomize these two models to probe the features that significantly impact the IOD predictability. Customized version of model components, refined ocean-atmosphere coupler and sophisticated data assimilation system are the major attributes to their skill for IOD predictability. It is evident from CanESM5 simulations that Southern Ocean provides notable signals through Antarctic circumpolar currents that propagates to tropical Indian Ocean and influence the IOD events. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | Indian Ocean, dipole mode events, CMIP6 decadal hindcast, IOD prediction |
| For Awards | no |