01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-05-0336 |
| Title of Abstract | Improving Marine Weather Services through Verification of NWP Surface Wind Forecasts in the Indian Ocean |
| Authors | Dr. Amit Bhardwaj*, Dr. PLN Murty |
| Organisation | IMD |
| Address | Mausam Bhawan Delhi, Delhi, India Pincode: 110003 E-mail: bhardwaj.amit@imd.gov.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | This study evaluates the performance of surface wind forecasts from multiple operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and their Multi-Model Ensemble. The assessment focuses on the Indian Ocean for the period 2023⿿2025, using a wide range of reference datasets including in-situ observations from moored buoys and ships, satellite-derived winds, and model analyses over the Indian domain. The verification highlights systematic strengths and weaknesses across the models while demonstrating the added value of the MME in improving forecast reliability. By integrating in-situ, satellite, and analysis datasets, the study provides a basin-scale assessment of forecast skill. These findings are directly relevant for marine weather services, where accurate near-surface wind forecasts are critical for issuing timely warnings to fishermen, ensuring safe navigation of ships, optimizing port operations, and safeguarding lives and property at sea. The results underscore the importance of multi-source validation in strengthening operational forecasting capacity across the Indian Ocean region. The verification indicates that most models show a positive bias of about 1⿿2 m/s against buoy observations, while ASCAT winds suggest slight underestimation in high-wind regimes. Ship data, although less reliable for wind speed due to overestimation, remains valuable for assessing wind direction. The MME reduces systematic errors by nearly 20⿿30%, enhancing forecast reliability. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | NWP, MME, Forecast verification; Indian Ocean; Buoy and ship observations; Satellite-derived winds (ASCAT); Marine weather services |
| For Awards | no |