01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-05-0017 |
| Title of Abstract | Last Decade⿿s (2014-23) Unprecidented Spatio-temporal variability in Cyclone⿿s Accumulated Energy, Power Dissipation Index and Track Density in the Northern Indian Ocean |
| Authors | Ghulam Ghaush zahid*, Dr. R. Harikumar |
| Organisation | INCOIS, Hyderabad |
| Address | B2 INCOIS Quarter, Pragathi nagar, Hyderabad, INCOIS Hyderabad Hyderabad, Telangana, India Pincode: 500090 E-mail: gg.zahid-rf@incois.gov.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | The present study explores the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics, including frequency, intensity, trajectory, energy and duration over the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons from 1984 to 2023. In general, the analysis indicates a notable increase in the occurrence of intense cyclones over the AS, while a decline is observed in the BOB. During the recent decade (2014⿿2023), the frequency of intense TCs (VSCS, ESCS & SUCS) over the Arabian Sea has increased 3 fold in the pre-monsoon and 8 fold in the post-monsoon compared to the previous decade (2004⿿2013), while the post monsoon mild TCs (CS & SCS) declined to half in number with no change in the frequency of pre-monsoon TCs. Over the Bay of Bengal, intense pre- and post-monsoon TCs rose by just 33% and there is even a decrease in mild TCs during both the pre- and post-monsoon periods. Trends in cyclone energy indicators, such as the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), show an increasing trend in the AS (closer to the coast) and a decreasing trend in the northern BoB (however, an increasing in the southern west part). The Genesis Potential Index (GPI) shows strong correlations with ACE (PDI) during the AS pre-monsoon with 0.61(0.57) and post-monsoon with 0.62(0.55) seasons. Further analysis shows that spatial trends in GPI, low-level vorticity, VWS, TCHP, thermal instability, and RH mainly drive cyclone genesis and intensification during the post-monsoon (pre-monsoon) over the AS (BOB). Increased cyclone intensity over post-monsoon AS in the recent decade is linked to high GPI, RH, TCHP, and subsurface ocean warming. Global warming in the wake of climate change seen to intensify the conditions favoring cyclone development, leading to more frequent and powerful storms with shifting trajectories. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | Tropical Cyclones (TC), Northern Indian Ocean (NIO), Genesis Potential Index (GPI), Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), Potential destructive index (PDI). |
| For Awards | yes |
| Date Of Birth | 15-05-1998 |
| ECSN Registration Number | IIOE2-ECSN-0110 |