01-05 December 2025
INCOIS, Hyderabad, India.
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-04-0115 |
| Title of Abstract | An Assessment of Projected Changes in SST, Rainfall, Winds, and Sea Level over the Indian Ocean under 2°C and 3°C Global Warming Thresholds Using CMIP6 |
| Authors | Dr Laxmikant Dhage, Abhirami M* |
| Organisation | KUFOS |
| Address | Kulathuvilaveedu panayara po varkala Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India Pincode: 695145 E-mail: abhiramimanoj55@gmail.com |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Poster |
| Abstract | This study investigates how the Indian Ocean climate system responds to global warming thresholds of 2°C and 3°C above pre-industrial levels, using a 10-member ensemble of CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Indian Ocean is identified as one of the fastest-warming ocean basins, with multi-model mean sea surface temperature (SST) increases of about 1.5°C and 2.2°C at the respective global warming levels. Warming is spatially uneven, with a marked west⿿east SST gradient that weakens the Indian Ocean Walker Circulation and shifts convective activity poleward. Precipitation changes closely follow SST anomalies, showing strong spatial and seasonal variation. Rainfall is projected to increase over the western Indian Ocean, the northern Bay of Bengal, and much of the Indian subcontinent during the summer (JJAS) and post-monsoon (ONDJ) seasons, while the southeastern Indian Ocean is expected to dry. These changes result from both increased moisture availability and dynamic circulation shifts, such as reduced ascent in the eastern basin, potentially impacting water resources, agriculture, and monsoon reliability. Sea surface height (SSH) projections suggest a dipole-like redistribution, with rising sea levels in the northern Arabian Sea and declines in the southeast, driven by thermal expansion, wind stress changes, and circulation shifts. Surface wind stress is projected to weaken for southwest monsoon winds and strengthen for equatorial easterlies, altering Ekman transport and reinforcing upper-ocean warming through air⿿sea feedbacks. Despite individual model biases, the ensemble mean captures observed historical trends reasonably well, increasing confidence in these projections. The study underscores the need for high-resolution regional modeling and targeted adaptation planning, especially for Indian Ocean rim nations vulnerable to climate and sea level changes. |
| Are you part of IIOE-2 endorsed project | no |
| Keywords | ndian Ocean, climate change, CMIP6, sea surface temperature, sea level rise, wind stress, precipitation, global warming thresholds, climate projections, climate feedbacks |
| For Awards | yes |
| Date Of Birth | 23-07-2002 |
| ECSN Registration Number | IIOE2-ECSN-0133 |